No Iraqi Beverly Hillbillies
Apparently the country is broke, and all its oil isn’t enough to do more than lift it up to the state of, well, Argentina or something. Even screwing the French and the Russians our of their loans won’t get Iraq very far…
Estimates of Iraq’s potential oil earnings during the first year or two after the war range from about $15 billion to $20 billion, depending on price and production assumptions.
From that income, at least $11 billion would be needed initially for routine government spending on state employees’ salaries, public health, safety, education, agriculture and welfare programs, Sandi said.
That would leave $4 billion to $9 billion to finance repairs, infrastructure development, humanitarian assistance, debt payments, claim settlements and war reparations.
And that’s where the numbers stop making sense.
Estimates of Iraq’s reconstruction needs start at about $25 billion and run as high as $100 billion. The Council on Foreign Relations predicts that reconstruction will consume about $20 billion a year for several years.
Iraq’s external debt ‘ loans from foreign countries and international creditors ‘ totals at least $60 billion and as much as $130 billion.
Sandi, who has contacted a number of governments to discuss Iraq’s financial situation, said his best estimate is about $115 billion.
At 10% interest, as low a rate as indebted countries can expect to pay, Iraq’s interest payments alone could cost more than $10 billion a year.
Iraq also faces thousands of compensation claims totaling more than $200 billion.
Nearly $100 billion is being sought by Iran as a result of the eight-year war instigated by Hussein.