Forward Looking

This strategy analysis, quite well reasoned, states that Al-Qaida has successfully laid a trap for the United States, retains the initiative, and the U.S. is operating �inside the intentions and plans� of Al-Qaida. Which is exactly where you don;t want to be if you’re fighting terrorists, a small cadre of determined people can sometimes manage to dictate the behaviour of a larger opponent quite successfully. This is what happened in Northern Ireland for so long.

Anyway, the writer then trys to think about what is the end-game of this current phase of the war. Just as in Somalia when Al-Quaida lured the US into a losing scenario and military losses, the current involvement seems to want to trigger US troop deployment. At which time they become vulnerable to asymmetrical attack. Just like Reagan’s Marine casualties in Lebanon in the 1980s. In this scenario, a nuclear attack in the Gulf would destroy many US forces, remove from supply and contaminate huge oil reserves, cause a worldwide Depression, and destabilise the entire Middle East. Oh dear.