Basra Three-Way Fight

Reading between the lines, the fighting in Basra is mainly between random, unpredictable pockets of “militiamen” and the US Army… while the remaining regular Iraqi army units keep their heads down. I think by “militiamen” the reports are leaning towards either Saddamist commissars militant Shi’ite nationalists, or possibly Iran-oriented irregulars such as the Badr. In any case, the situation is already a lot more ferocious and disorganized than the military analysts had predicted. It seems that the Islamists in the south of Iraq are trying to use the US advance to gain independence for Basra and environs from Iraq proper. They are also trying to lure the US into bombing the remaining regular Iraqi army units to reduce their strength. This is very similar to the complex interplay and rivarly between the Viet Minh and the Cao Dai the early days of the US involvement in Vietnam. The Diem regime was able to crush the Cao Dai (with US aid) but paradoxically this made the Viet Minh all the stronger as they picked up disaffected Cao Dai soldiers. The confused battle against non-Iraqi army regulars for control of Basra is an ominous portent for any future US occupation. Of course, Cao Dai believes that Les Mis’s Victor Hugo was an earthly incarnation of God, or something, so their strategy may have lacked some finesse.

Update: from optimism to pessimism in two short days. There is a meta-narrative at work here. Meanwhile, given the strong resistance they’ve encountered, the US/UK plans now seem to be to lay siege to Basra and deny them food and water until the holdouts surrender. It’s an ancient part of the world so I suppose sometimes the old tricks of starvation and epidemic work best.