Precision Bombing
2’000 lb. JDAM bombs. If all goes 100% as planned (the bomb does not fall outside of its specified margin of error of 13 meters, and the GPS guidance system is not foiled by a $50 radio jammer kit, easily purchased), then here is what one such bomb does:
Everyone within a 120 meter radius is killed;
To be safe from serious shrapnel damage, a person must be at least 365 meters away;
To be really safe from all effects of fragmentation, a person must be 1000 meters away, according to Admiral Stufflebeem.
– Mark Herold. He also did the often-cited Afghanistan study, and contributor to various articles.
I note that the “13 metre” error is a CEP, or circular error probability. Therefore, if all the bombs were retrofitted to become “smart bombs“, then using “precision” bombing under perfect atmospheric and system conditions, 50% of the bombs will detonate within a 13-metre radius of the target… and 50% will detonate outside the 13-metre target radius. My conclusion: precision bombs are neither a gentle nor a precise tool of diplomacy.
Note to Americans:
“13 metres” is 40 feet.
“120-meter radius” is around 400 feet. The “kill area” is therefore around 125,000 square feet, or just under 3 acres.
“365 metres” is 1100 feet. The “shrapnel area” is therefore just under 4 million square feet, or just under 92 acres.
“1000 metres” is 3000 feet. The “wound area” is therefore around 28.3 million square feet, or just under 651 acres, or just over 1 square mile.
A good estimate for an average city block length in the US is 400 feet. Therefore, each bomb can kill everyone within 1 city block, wound everyone with shrapnel within the next two adjoining city blocks, and cause injuries for around 10 blocks.
They have effects quite like this:
