More Military Acronyms
The “Shock and Awe” campaign failed completely. The traditional term of “Mass” has not been used by ground forces. Air power has supplied the mass, while the ground forces have suffered from “economy of force” being redefined. The march of 3rd ID (infantry division), while amazing, has left huge supply lines from Kuwait. These supply lines do not seem to be well guarded. The Apache attack on the Medina division was largely ineffective.
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We have not seen the widespread defection or surrender of the Iraqi Army. We have not seen the widespread throngs of Iraqi citizens cheering our boys when they head north, or when they seize one of the towns.BLUF: (?) This war has been much more difficult than expected. I think we will see 3 ID take defensive positions 30-50 miles outside of Baghdad and wait for reinforcements.
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As we all saw yesterday, the war has gone from a liberation (or so projected) and road march, to a forecast of very hard work ahead.
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The results of the Apache unit attack last night might have validated the second COA. It appears that in an effort to test RG defenses, about 50 miles south of Baghdad, an Apache unit was sent forward of the 3rd ID (as was the theory of deep attack during the Cold War in Europe). We don’t know what the enemy BDA ( battle damage assessment )is, but the Apache unit had to withdraw due to heavy AA fire, and lost an Apache (it appears to have had a soft landing, with the crew picked up by a Blackhawk), and it is now in Iraqi hands.
At the military level the US/UK force has been forced to suspend its advance on Baghdad. Every single dire prediction of the critics is coming to pass. The stretched lines of communication and supply running up west of the Euphrates past Nasiriya and Najaf, or further east, west of the Tigris past Basra towards Amarah are proving vulnerable to determined harassment by Iraqi forces. The Apache helicopters have taken a fearful beating, as have the Abrams tanks. The Shock and Awe overture saw around 400 cruise missiles, running at half a million dollars a copy achieve less than significant damage.
Already there’s fierce hand-to-hand infighting inside the Pentagon, as Defense Secretary Rumsfeld’s numerous enemies in the military seek out favored journalist to inflict punitive retaliation for what they describe as his arrogance and folly.
Earlier here, and more Russian military analysis here or here.