Saudi Oil Approaching Hubbert Peak
Despite being lambasted by his critics (mainly economists), M King Hubbert’s prediction that despite all possible advances in technology and expansion of drilling areas, US oil production would peak and then decline during the 1970s was borne out.
The earth is, of course, a finite system and so only a deranged optimist (or a Bush Gang crony) could assume that a larger, global Hubbert Peak was anything other than inevitable. So it was with mixed feelings that I read here that Saudi Arabia’s massive reserves are apparently topping out. Apparently, we can see reductions in Saudi oil exports by the teens.
As I drive home and watch other cars, I find it hard to imagine that within a couple of generations travelling by private automobile may very well have become a luxury that few will be able to afford. Or perhaps private automobile travel will be rationed, as during the World Wars, and limited to a specific number of miles or quantity of energy per year. It seems incredible, but people watching the endless herds of bison or flocks of passenger pigeons probably felt that the extraordinary quantity and of their existence was inevitable, and any alternative absurd. So it goes.
Ever since its rich reserves were discovered more than a half-century ago, Saudi Arabia has pumped the oil needed to keep pace with rising needs, becoming the mainstay of the global energy markets. But the country’s oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world’s thirst for oil in coming years. Energy forecasts call for Saudi Arabia to almost double its output in the next decade and after. Oil executives and government officials in the United States and Saudi Arabia, however, say capacity will probably stall near current levels, potentially creating a significant gap in the global energy supply … An internal Saudi Aramco plan, the experts said, estimates total production capacity in 2011 at 10.15 million barrels a day, about the current capacity. But to meet expected world demand, the United States Department of Energy’s research arm says Saudi Arabia will need to produce 13.6 million barrels a day by 2010 and 19.5 million barrels a day by 2020.
Earlier here.