Air Conditioned Fantasy
Whatever you do, don’t use the Q Word. After the first couple of weeks of annihilation and disintegration of the Iraqi army by the invading forces, I had deranged pro-war fan boys emails me “NO QUAGMIRE!” crap. I think the whole point is that you can’t tell much of anything after two weeks. In any case, current events do not bode well for a swift or painless US disengagement from Iraq. Current US strategy seems to depend on maintaining the unsuccessful, zero-Iraqi involvement occupation regime for as long as possible, in order to prevent the Iran-oriented Shia political factions from assuming control. In Chalabi, the neocons in the Bush Gang thought they had a suitable powerful leader to create a pro-US puppet regime, but it appears that his power base is too small. Probably some of the neocons are hoping that they can partition Iraq – ala Vietnam – and create a defensible, pro-US oil-rich Statelet, as long as they can find some obedient Diem/Thieu dictators to assume control. Imperial Powers often use this partition strategy and sometimes it works (Ireland, India/Pakistan, Iraq/Kuwait) and sometimes it doesn’t (Vietnam, Germany, China).
the few Iraqis who have joined the Coalition Provisional Authority under Mr Bremer – which operates out of Saddam Hussein’s heavily fortified Republican Palace in the center of the capital – describe the American officials administering Iraq as “living in an air-conditioned fantasy world” … The obvious solution for the US is to set up an Iraqi provisional administration, operating under ultimate American control. But attractive though this might be, it would also mean ceding some power to Iraqis, something Mr Bremer is loath to do … The main reason why Washington does not want to give up any power is the fear that this would ultimately open the way for a takeover by Iraq’s Shia Muslims, who account for at least 55 per cent of the population and would probably win any free elections.